Friday, September 12, 2008

The Joe Biden Health Watch

Cross-posted from Let's Get This Right.

I had a discussion last night with my good friend Tony GOPrano of PoliticoMafioso during which I suggested that if the health of the Obama campaign doesn't improve dramatically by October 1st, you can be assured that Joe Biden's will decline just as dramatically over the same time frame. Tony disagreed with me strongly. Granted he lives in Arizona, has volunteered for John McCain campaigns for years and has one of the most highly read pro-McCain blogs out there.

However, when I woke up and saw the headline in the Financial Times Democrats on Capitol Hill Fear Obama Fallout I knew that the Biden Health Watch was on.

Let's remember that it was those same Democratic party bosses that selected Barack Obama over Senator Hillary Clinton not because they felt he was more qualified to be President but rather for the dollars and new voters he would bring to the party. Barack Obama was going to lead the charge for "change", 40 more seats in Congress and a filibuster proof Senate.

Well as the saying goes..."Not so much."

"Democratic jitters about the US presidential race have spread to Capitol Hill, where some members of Congress are worried that Barack Obama’s faltering campaign could hurt their chances of re-election. Party leaders have been hoping to strengthen Democratic control of the House and Senate in November, but John McCain’s jump in the polls has stoked fears of a Republican resurgence."

According to an article today on Real Clear Politics, Palin's popularity has trickled down to other races.

"John McCain successfully closed the gap with Barack Obama when he chose Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate. But beyond the presidential contest, Republican leaders in Congress see a shifted landscape for their candidates, and for the first time in months, they have reason to be cautiously optimistic about the November elections.

"In the last three or four weeks, Democrats thought, especially after their convention, they thought things were all moving in their direction," National Republican Senatorial Committee chair John Ensign told Real Clear Politics. "The momentum has totally changed, and it's on our side."

Real Clear Politics' own polling data shows the Democrat's lead in generic Congressional polling has shrunk to 3.6% from double digits only a few weeks ago. Especially vulnerable are Democratic freshman congressmen defending tradionally Republican seats.

The Democratic party leaders are not going to let all of that slip away without a fight. Given that those who said that the Palin pick was not a "game changer" have been proven totally wrong, the only remaining game changer for Democrats is a sudden illness for Senator Biden and an Obama-Clinton ticket.

The Joe Biden Health Watch is on.